Mar 25, 2011
the situation of Libya no more than three
Difficult to predict the fate of Gaddafi, who is killed in battle, or choose to end his lives himselve, and the same as Saddam Hussein was captured alive,or to other country refuge, all required to wait and see. Gaddafi has always been defiant character, he will not let go, but his air force has basic loss combat ability, Gaddafi can count on is that tens of thousands of army. The west coalition forces is currently limited to air strikes against , whether to send ground troops is not yet clear.
Also worth exploring is after Gaddafi step down ,what the Libyan situation is. Base on past cases, Libya's future is no more than a three situation, one is like Afghanistan, one is like Iraq, one is like Egypt, the first two situation people naturally do not want to see. If, like Egypt, are considered the satisfaction of all.It is reported that the new constitution passed by referendum in Egypt, Egypt government has smooth transition to stability in the near future. However, the current situation is even if Gaddafi step down , Libya can not be calm, a previous agreement wit United Nations calls for, "to exclude any part of the territory of Libya to despatch any form of foreign occupation army", in other words, only the obligations of protection the Libyan civilian, and did not the authority of occupy Libya; two Libyan anti-government forces are complicated, do not rule out the extremists, even if the anti-government forces into power, nor domestic peace; three, Gaddafi has been distributed the weapons to civilians, Libya less likely to stop.
In short,the situation to Libyan civilian is bad,and let me think chinese sayings thriving people suffering, perish people suffering.